Express uncertainty.
Put a probability on an outcome, with a clear question and time horizon.
Independent forecasting project
Thinking in
probabilities.
Gougu explores how to make predictions about an uncertain world — and how to learn from the outcomes.
Meet Gougu
Our focus
Make uncertainty
measurable.
We are developing a forecasting approach built around explicit probabilities and evaluation against real outcomes. Our next step is to test it through ForecastBench.
Let outcomes speak.
Compare forecasts with what happens to understand where judgment holds up.
Improve with evidence.
Use evaluation to refine the next prediction and its underlying assumptions.